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Łukasz Kaiser basically confirmed it in a podcast:

https://youtu.be/3K-R4yVjJfU?si=JdVyYOlxUbEcvEEo&t=2624

> Q: Are the releases aligned with pre-training efforts?

> A: There used to be a time not that long ago, maybe half a year, distant past, where the models would align with RL runs or pretraining runs ... now the naming is by capability. GPT5 is a capable model; 5.1 is a more capable model



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