I'm thinking about a time scale much longer than silicon valley is accustomed to. Moderate use highways are repaved about every 10 years. The highest use roadways are repaved every 2-3 years. Cars will need to be able to fall back to current-ish mechanisms for the foreseeable future, but we could get the locations where most human miles are driven repaved with some new tech within a decade.
There's more than one moving target here. One is when regulators allow the vehicles on the roads en masse. I think that should be at the point they're "better than the median driver." As far as user acceptance, I think once the price-point of automated driving as a service is cheaper than private ownership it will take care of itself. It will likely take a human generation or two to get the majority of people in autonomous cars.
My parents are quickly nearing the age that they will lose their independence/ability to drive. I would love the ability to put them in an autonomous car that is even a little bit worse than the median driver.
Yeah from a raw statistics the 'better than a median driver' is the first point where a mass switch to driver-less cars and allowing them on the road makes sense. The big stumbling block to me though is that takes the diffuse responsibility of individual bad drivers and putting it all on the autopilot systems. It's the switch from the generic vague 'drivers' or 'distracted drivers' kill XXX people a year to Company Y's autopilot has killed YYY people this year.
There's more than one moving target here. One is when regulators allow the vehicles on the roads en masse. I think that should be at the point they're "better than the median driver." As far as user acceptance, I think once the price-point of automated driving as a service is cheaper than private ownership it will take care of itself. It will likely take a human generation or two to get the majority of people in autonomous cars.
My parents are quickly nearing the age that they will lose their independence/ability to drive. I would love the ability to put them in an autonomous car that is even a little bit worse than the median driver.