Yeah I think it's likely they get an EUV machine working but with less efficiency than ASML just because of how long it takes to tune these beasts and work out all the kinks.
The big brain move is to try leap-frog the whole thing with XFEL. Smaller wavelength, way brighter source, no vaporized tin particulate, etc.
It's a much bigger lift, new optics, new resists, etc. So a completely brand new supply-chain from scatch but with no competitors on that tech yet and low will for Western companies to try compete on it because they need to get money out of existing EUV tech first.
This is very similar IMO to Chinese auto manufacturing. Their ICE cars never really did meet the same standards as European or Japanese manufacturers despite JVs etc.
However EVs and green-tech are analagous to the XFEL path, they built from scratch and leapt over the competition that was happy to sit on it's existing profitable tech instead.
One could tune an FEL to precisely the same wavelength as ASML’s setup if one were so inclined. (Subject to all kinds of complications, as the high energy electron sources needed are complex and EUV light is hard to work with. But there isn’t much of a fundamental constraint on the ability to adjust the wavelength of a FEL.)
> However EVs and green-tech are analagous to the XFEL path, they built from scratch and leapt over the competition that was happy to sit on it's existing profitable tech instead.
I'm not convinced Chinese EVs are technologically better. They've just command economied demand and reduced costs via mass production. The technology seems pretty inline with anything available in the West but demand isn't there to take advantage of scale. China is ahead in EVs by metric of quantity for sure but I don't think they're got next gen battery tech they are keeping secret.
Making batteries for $80/kWh IS the next gen tech. I’m pretty sure China invented lipo (EDIT: I meant lfp) (at least they’re the only ones making it) and they’re currently pushing ahead on sodium ion. They are also the ones who have pushed lithium ion to the point it is today. My first EV was a Nissan Leaf that cost 40 grand and could drive 80 miles. Now you can buy 300-mile cars for about that. That was all China’s doing and nearly every EV on the road today uses their batteries.
They have done to the battery market exactly what Taiwan did to the chip market. You can buy an EV made anywhere the same way you can buy a laptop made anywhere. But guess where the chips and batteries were made.
They didn't invent LiPo (and you probably don't want those in a car), nor did they invent LFP (LiFePO4) but they did license it when no one else wanted to and turned it into probably the best EV battery tech you can buy today. They didn't innovate a ton on the chemistry but they did on the packaging side, BYD and CATLs structural pack designs exploit the low thermal runaway characteristics in a way that wouldn't be safe for NMC etc to reach near parity on density but with better longevity and cost.
They will be the first to sodium ion and solid state though.
DDR4 fab capacity should have stayed constant as DDR5 was brought online.
The mechanism that powers that is usually the top tier brands selling their used fab equipment to China who then keep mass producing the legacy DRAM while fabs in Korea are converted to manufacture the new standard.
Instead all of those machines have been warehoused because Korean firms fear US sanctions/punitive tarifs if they were to offload that equipment to China.
So what has happened is DDR4 capacity has actually shrunk massively when it shouldn't have, DDR5 capacity was only barely meeting demand and then huge deals were cut that cornered the market.
Tarifs wouldn't help DDR5 a huge amount but without them DDR4 would be dirt cheap right now.
I read that's not really the case - there's a bunch of equipment on EU-spec (and some other market) BYDs that comes from EU vendors such as Bosch. It additionally has a completely different AC unit as the kind of refrigerant BYD uses in China is illegal in the EU.
I'm not saying it justifies the price difference, but there are changes between the cars.
Right, so we are never going to see it for 20 grand in the US. Maybe because of tariffs and taxes, as you say, or maybe just because BYD isn't going to set the price at 20K in a market with 10x the average income.
That is a fair point. But then it just reveals that the comparison was contrived from the outset and there was no point to be made. It has never been the case that products in different markets were priced in coordination. The price is always whatever the market will bear, it has zero relationship to the cost to produce unless the market has a lot of competition.
IMO it's maybe the best suited language to AoC.
You can write it even faster than Python, has a very terse syntax and great numerical performance for the few challenges where that matters.
I know this is pretty personal but Python's way with indention really does not play well with throwing things out. It's obviously matter of practice, but languages that have same qualities but are easier on formatting issues and aren't that set on one correct way of writing things allow much doing things much faster. But at the end, it's personal :-)
So the main reason that doesn't work sometimes is how you are using Rust.
For instance right now I'm leaning into the Rust Embassy ecosystem which is async based, the drivers need relatively deep integration with the embedded-hal-async layer which is far from trivial to do with C bindings.
In practice I end up rewriting drivers. Which sounds daunting but often times it's much easier than folks think and the resulting code is usually 1/4th or smaller the original C code. If only implement what you need sometimes drivers can be less than 100 lines of Rust.
There are certain figures who are very experienced and knowledgeable in certain domains, so when they speak up about a topic it's usually worth listening to them. That doesn't mean they're always going to be correct, and they shouldn't be worshiped as superhuman entities, but it's almost always a bad idea to completely ignore them.
The big brain move is to try leap-frog the whole thing with XFEL. Smaller wavelength, way brighter source, no vaporized tin particulate, etc. It's a much bigger lift, new optics, new resists, etc. So a completely brand new supply-chain from scatch but with no competitors on that tech yet and low will for Western companies to try compete on it because they need to get money out of existing EUV tech first.
This is very similar IMO to Chinese auto manufacturing. Their ICE cars never really did meet the same standards as European or Japanese manufacturers despite JVs etc.
However EVs and green-tech are analagous to the XFEL path, they built from scratch and leapt over the competition that was happy to sit on it's existing profitable tech instead.
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